Close to Retirement? Advice Varies on What to Do

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According to Philip Moeller, writing for US News and World Report, the need for income in retirement is essential. None of us plan on outliving our retirement. But far fewer of us actually approach retirement with a good sense of where we should be financially. The focus on amassing great wealth in one place is definitely a plus but it is only part of what you will need.

Where We Turn Matters
Many folks turn to a financial planner for advice without the realization that these folks can come at the issue (I hesitate to use the word problem) from all sorts of different angles. Mr. Moeller’s article profiled several planners, advisers, and wealth managers for his piece on boosting wealth in retirement.

First up was Joy Slabaugh a financial planner with EST Financial Group in Delmar, Del. Ms. Slabaugh’s annuity approach and preservation mode would be perfect for the couple who have amassed enough to draw 4% or less of their portfolio in their retirement years and not dependent on any future growth. Four percent is a widely accepted number to gage your portfolio’s strength to last long enough to leave something in your account after you pass. But a great number of people tend to look at that number as inadequate and shift it higher, jeopardizing the balance quicker.

Ms Slabaugh’s suggestion about non-traded REITs will add an out-sized amount of risk although. This sort of investment hinges too much on the resale value of the underlying properties and the relatively short maturity some of these securities have. I hope she tells retirees about the ability (or willingness) of the REIT to not only determine the maturity on their debt (see this older article about debt determination for more info) but whether refinancing short-term debt might be a problem in the near future.

Just a Dose of Risk
Of the four Mr. Moeller profiled, I liked Erika Safran’s of Safran Wealth Advisors in New York approach the best. Her warning off the conservative investor by suggesting that “peace of mind” comes at a cost is excellent advice for those who have shifted to target date funds, bond mutual funds, or balanced funds early in their work career.

It is refreshing to hear someone talk this way to retirees or those close to the goal. If you consider the 30-year time horizon, switching too early or too much into fixed-income investments is akin in some ways to suggesting that someone fresh to the workforce buy bonds.

George Jackson’s approach (using a TD Amertrade platform at his Jackson Retirement Planning) sounds as if it involves a lot of rebalancing as the markets shift, which to me sounds counterintuitive. Many of these types of shifts take place on the way down and well-after the market has decided on something else. But his ability to rotate out of stocks in “early 2008″ (stocks were beginning to decline) put him well ahead of where the vast majority of investors were in late 2008.

Too Safe Usually Means Annuities
Tom Brown seems to be focused on the safest route of all in suggesting the budget and the ability of the portfolio to cover those expenses. Although he doesn’t say annuity (his association with Northwestern Mutual suggests otherwise) the frequent rebalancing makes me wonder how much his management costs are. As long as the client’s needs are being met, he mentions that they are okay with temporary dips.

None of the advisers seemed too concerned about interest rates or the potential of a maturity wall (a point where a ungainly amount of maturing bonds find the interest rates less accommodative and are forced to borrow at a higher rate) in the coming year. If I were to bet on one adviser’s advice surviving better than the others, it would be Ms. Safran’s approach. She was the only one with an eye on low-cost investments at a time when costs play the major role in how long the portfolio lasts.

Here is the link to the full article US News and World Report article by Mr. Moeller.

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Running Towards Danger: The New Retirement Plan

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It is never easy to pinpoint the exact beginning of a crisis. Pinpointing a retirement crisis is even more difficult. You can assume that because one event usually leads to another, at least in our experience with these sorts of things, a crisis would be relatively easy to predict. But even in the short-term, and the weather is a good example of this, you can never be absolutely certain until you are actually in it. It is like that with retirement.

If the last two years have taught us anything about what retirement is, it has been that it is not what we thought it was. We planned (except we did so with the most optimistic of outcomes) and we invested (although to this day we still say we were saving for retirement) and we took out-sized risks (thinking if the person next to me is counting his unhatched chickens, I should be doing the same, except counting more). And for the most part, we all found out how wrong this kind of thinking can be.

The Conservative Retirement Investment Approach
And now, we have run in the complete opposite direction. Well, I am here to tell you: run towards the danger. As I flip around the channels in the morning, the buzzword I hear most often (often enough it should be part of some sadistic drinking game) is the word risk. Most of the folks who use this term do so as if they were talking about a new strain of infectious disease. To be risky is to be infected with no common sense. After all, look where risk got us.

Retirement is a risky undertaking. And many of us will find out when it is too late, that we didn’t take enough risks. Or perhaps I should clarify that: we didn’t take enough smart risks.

Most of the trouble we experienced came at the hands of greedy financial sorts who made risk seem as if it was as common as the air we breath. It was a cascading effect of one person falling for it and then another until whole countrysides bought into the notion. Then it went global. When folks found out the risks were not good, they made the next natural leap and assumed that all risk was bad. All snakes are not poisonous. All rainstorms don’t lead to flooding. All risk was suddenly the same. The first question we wanted to know was how much risk was involved.

The Retirement Risk Question
Posing this question in front of a retirement planning decision is making the assumption that risk is not part of the equation; and if it is, how much can I control it? Before I answer that, let me tell you about the high amount of risk that remains out there. This is sort of like telling you that the question is mostly worth asking.

Equities are poised to correct in the next six months – big time. You can expect that once investors are allowed to make the connection between no hiring and no customers, even if those numbers are improving slightly, stocks will begin to sell-off. You can expect that once investors realize that no jobs and no hiring means no housing sales, although those numbers will improve as well, stocks will slide even more. When billion dollar portfolio managers are saying invest in volatility, this is what they mean.

Because the vast majority of us are invested in equities via the mutual funds available in our 401(k), the knee jerk reaction will continue as we begin to stop force feeding our retirement plans with money we feel as though could be lost to risk. We will do this no matter what we own: index funds, target date funds, bonds, whatever it is, we wil pull back.

Bond mutual fund have seen enormous inflows over the last couple of years. Equity mutual funds, as you many of you already know, have not seen such affectionate support. Bonds have been helped by the surging interest in target-date funds, which make a portion of their portfolio focus on this conservative fixed security. That loss of retirement portfolio values has also given a great many investors the feeling that everything they knew about equities was simply not true. The stock market did not do what they assumed it would do, or better, would do what it was promised.

But many of us running from risk will find the shady tree that bonds are is no protection when things go sour. In fact, the maturity wall now being discussed is a very real threat. The maturity wall refers to a time in the very near future when many businesses will be faced with a refinancing option that may not be as low-cost as they may have assumed. The yields many of these refinanced securities will be offering (bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields; when prices are low, as they are now, yields are high) will prove too costly to be profitable. This will include not only corporate bonds but municipal offerings as well. And if Treasury offerings find no takers or a lower debt rating, it will be very bad indeed.

When Risk Bites Hardest; Bite Back
So what does that leave? You will need to run towards the danger. This will require you to make some sort of time horizon determination. If you are in your twenties and thirties, get into actively managed funds, contribute as much as you can and keep doing so. The reason: if those aforementioned adjustments take place, prices will drop and you will have the rare advantage of buying more for less.

If you are in your forties and have made some adjustments to your portfolio with more conservative investments (like balanced funds or target date funds), leave them alone and shift your contributions towards more equities. Once again, this will allow you yet another option to buy on the way down. You probably sold on the last dip. Don’t make that mistake again. Had you stayed put, evidence is beginning to prove, you would be almost back to where you were at the end of 2007, the year before the collapse.

If you are in your fifties, the best you can do is increase your contributions and get your financial house in order.  This is prime time to make concrete plans about what you envision your retirement will be like, how much you will need and how much you have. Refinance your mortgage and pay off your debts. (Easier said than done; but if you don’t focus on that now, you will not come close to where you want to be, healthy portfolio or not. Good advice for all of the previously mentioned age groups, but doubly so for this group.)

Among all of these age groups, diversity among as many asset classes as possible is still key. We are no longer in the “set it and forget it” world of retirement planning.

I am alarmed with the amazing frequency of these downturns and the more amazing swiftness of the recoveries. This means that there will be more risk, more often. Running from it, may not prove to be the wisest move in the long run.

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