Investing in Your 401(k): The Real World of Persuasion

“Rainbows don’t cast reflections. They can’t because they’re not real objects. As we all know from horror movies, vampires don’t have a reflection in a mirror. Neither do rainbows.” Bob Berman of Astronomy suggested this back in October 2009 writing that a rainbow “is a specific set of reflections and refractions within water droplets that essentially appear on the surface of an invisible cone whose radius is 42 degrees, whose orientation is the antisolar point, and whose apex is your eye, and your eye alone” and because of that we don’t see the same thing.

So it goes with investing. How we react and why we do so is being studied with increased intensity in part because what we think we will do, what we say we will do and what we actually end up doing, are wholly different. Over the next couple of posts, we will look at some of the more interesting studies on the effects of our behaviors when it comes to investing and how they will ultimately effect your plans to retire when you want to and with the money you think you will need.

Inside your 401(k)

You have choices inside this tax deferred plan that to some seem daunting; to others a banquet of opportunities. When we are first faced with the choices many of our plans have, we tend to fall back on some latent attractions. Most 401(k) plans are populated with a variety of low-cost index funds, some actively managed funds, balanced mutual funds (which split the investments among stocks – 60% and bonds – 40%) and the newest members of the group, the target date fund (identified by the year you will retire – or hope to).

According to a study conducted by Stanford, the chances of what we choose depends on which sex we are. Men tend to be less choosier that women no matter how big the group is. Women tend to say they look for certain characteristics but when given many choices, they tend to abandon those preferences. This study wasn’t exactly focused on the different way women and men in invest or how they approach their finances. But retirement is a persuasive engagement of time and effort. And we think we know who we are when it comes to making the right choices for our retirement.

This study perked the ears and eyes of marketers who look for these subtle nuances of behavior and try to gear their products towards their customer’s needs. The study found, using speed dating as the test, “Women get pickier about whom they date the more options they have. Moreover, although women say that they rate intelligence over attractiveness in their search for a mate, when they try “speed dating” physical attractiveness leads their list—outpacing intelligence, sincerity, and compatibility—to the same degree as it does for men.”  If women say they want a certain thing from their investment portfolio as men, why do they often choose differently when confronted with the same options.

Our Baseline

We have, according to the study, a baseline of what we find attractive. Yet, if we suggest that this baseline is our guide, why do deviate from it when numerous choices, including the ones we ascribe to the most, are given? Alice LaPlante writes: ”Another interesting finding was that women tended to be choosier the more options they had. In the smaller group (10 men and 10 women) both men and women said they would like to see any given person again approximately half the time. In the large dating group, men kept to the same proportion of yeses (10 out of 20 times). However, women only said yes 6.5 out of 20 times.”

Perhaps we don’t know what the right choice is. Perhaps when it comes to retirement planning using our 401(k) we have the right intentions but when faced with the daunting task of putting our prerequisites to work for us, we flinch and go against what we find attractive. In a 401(k), pick-and-choose situation, we know that retirement at 65 is the goal. yet some of us will opt for a much more conservative investment thinking it is safer. And while we are attracted to safety, the ultimate result of such a choice might mean that we need to forego the goal because we simply haven’t taken the right amount of risk.

We may have no influence over the external factors at play. We know, for instance that we should contribute far more than we are. But when faced with the choice of living a little bit smaller and investing a little bit more – the preference is always invest a little more – we don’t. We’ll lament about the fact later, and according to Itamar Simonson, the Sebastian S. Kresge Professor of Marketing at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, who studied dating preferences along with co-researchers Raymond Fisman and Sheena Iyengar of Columbia University and Emir Kamenica of Harvard University deny our actions.

His study, using speed dating as the test, found “there was a much higher correlation between what men said they wanted and what they actually did. “Men,” his research uncovered,  ”say that appearance is important, and it is. Women do not say that appearance is particularly important to them, but it is, particularly in the context of speed dating.”

Are you speed dating your 401(k)?

Next up: Investing in your 401(k): Are you in charge or is it something else?

Brightscope Does it Again

The small start-up Brightscope has done it again.  While the tool they originally introduced offered plan sponsors a look at how well their offerings served the needs of those who use the business’ 401(k) and plan users the opportunity to confront those sponsors about the adequacy of those plans, a new tool puts more of the information in the employee’s hands.

Designed to offer the plan participant a more in-depth look at how their 401(k) plan performs, their new tool, which Brightscope founders Ryan and Mike Alfred suggests is free because you already pay fees, takes the whole process to the next logical level.  Drawing from a database of 30,000 plans, you can, after registering for free, drill down into your personal plan.

The tool asks for your age, salary, annual contribution and plan sponsor.  From there, all that is needed to complete the analysis is the actual funds you own.  This tool profiles not only the fees, expressed as an average across all of the funds listed, but the option to roll it over (if your investments are with a company you no longer work for) to an IRA.

Even if you are not rolling your investment from an old plan to an IRA, the tool will give you greater insight into the real costs of your plan.  These costs are often overlooked, or worse, masked by the plan sponsor.  In many instances, there is little you can do about getting those fees lower short of picking lower cost funds in the plan or complaining to the plan administrator.

But knowledge, as they say, is power.  And if Messrs. Alfred keep doing what they are doing, an uprising among participants can not be to far in the future.

To use the tool, simply go to the Brightscope site and register – as I mentioned earlier, it is free.

Paul Petillo is the Managing Editor of Target2025.com

The Curious Case of Mutual Fund Comparison: Performance

The last lines of Matthew P. Fink’s book, “The Rise of the Mutual Fund” suggest that although he is a “worrier; nonetheless, I am optimistic”.  This speaks volumes to the “extraordinary success of mutual funds”.  Mr. Fink believes that despite the speculation about the maturity of the industry, it is far from falling from its exalted position.  This elevated status is due, he writes “to adherence to high standards of fiduciary behavior”.

Yet the  mutual fund industry continues to be attacked for any number of reasons.  The largest component of your 401(k) plan, your IRAs and the driving force behind numerous college savings plans, these investments are often questioned on their transparency, why they charge what they charge and even more commonly, why, if you win one quarter, can you not win the game.

Comparing Mutual Funds
There are numerous ways to compare mutual funds and none of them good.  The rule of thumb for a fund is relatively straightforward: look for long-term performance (I have suggested that you also look to how well the fund manager did in poor markets rather than how they did during the good times), the cost of the fund (fees and expenses do not often tell the whole story but offer a telling sign of how much the fund manager trades and why), and the tenure of the manager in charge (an ever shifting picture as fund managers come and go and new managers look to put their investment stamp on the portfolio).

The subject of performance is often more confusing when actively managed funds are compared to indexes. These passive measures are poor indicators of what an active manager holds.  This is why, so often, index investors make the claim that not only do passively managed funds offer a cost advantage but because the strategy of buy-and-hold limits volatility, they increase returns by limiting exposure to unnecessary risk.  Your cost for less risk however can be higher than the low cost of these funds. Also consider that index funds do not hold all of the stocks in the indexes they mimic.  And actively managed funds hold even less.

Looking at Past Performance
Performance also comes to the forefront when we look backwards.  For quite sometime now, the mutual fund industry has warned investors that the past is no indication of the future.  While this has been disclaimed as a method of disclosure, it is still one of the default guides for new and even seasoned investors when making the choice for which fund to buy.

Over the last decade we have had two bubbles and two market reactions to those events.  Had you purchased a mutual fund, any fund as a bubble reached its peak, the previous five years would not have reflected the previous bull market’s demise.  I clearly remember the sigh of relief as the year 2001 was dropped from the 5 year returns in 2007.  No longer would the bad bets made during the internet bubble show up as a stain on the investor information sheets.  Ironically, even as some funds dove into the depths, they took the whole market down with them.  (As did happen recently in 2008.)

Just by removing the bad year from the five-year returns made many funds appear much better to investors and they flocked to own them again.  Averages suggest some odd things.  A line-up of one hundred persons, ninety-eight of whom are six feet tall would not change the average if the person on one end was ten feet tall and the one on the other end was three feet in height.

But stock markets rarely have a peak that moves quickly from the bottom to the top whereas the bottom is often reached in less than six months.  The top of a bull market takes five years, at least as witnessed over the last decade, to attain.  This is not the case for any period prior to this.  Bottoms were reached quickly while the top of the market was often a slow slog.

So we have the performance of actively managed mutual funds as compared by using index funds possessing some flaws.  And past performance leaving us with no real picture of the future based on the past, how does one judge performance?  Without considering fees, the worst day of a fund.  Based on the simple idea that, if mutual funds are the primary holding in a retirement account and at one point in time, you will be begin to drawdown that account, picking the worst day to do so gives you a valuable peek at a worst case scenario. That is probably a truer indication of performance that averaging it our over a period in time.  You can read more about low-mark performance here.

Next, a discussion about fees.

Paul Petillo is the Managing Editor of Target2025.com